Europe Champions League
Leipzig
0 : 1
Ended 13 Feb 2024, 20:00
Real Madrid
Diaz B. 48'

Prediction for Leipzig - Real Madrid 13 February 2024

Real Madrid crushed Girona 4-0 in La Liga last weekend. Carlo Ancelotti's side have increased their gap from second place in the league to five points and are approaching the Champions League play-offs in high spirits. In the first match of the 1/8 finals Real Madrid will play away against Marco Rosé's Leipzig. 

There is bad news for the fans of the "Royal Club": Alaba, Courtois, Militao and Rüdiger due to injuries will not help the team in Germany. Plus, Bellingham was injured in the previous match against Girona and his participation is in doubt. Will Leipzig take advantage of their opponent's difficult personnel situation?

The match at the Red Bull Arena kicks off on 13 February at 23:00 Moscow time.

Odds

Bookmakers have a slight preference for the visitors from Madrid:

Leipzig win 3.15

Draw 3.80

Real Madrid win 2.24

🔴"Leipzig" are not having the most even season, but they are still fifth in the Bundesliga, which can be called a good intermediate result. At the Champions League group stage, the Bulls finished second in Group G, trailing only Pep Guardiola's monstrous Manchester City. The second place allowed them to qualify for the 1/8 finals of the Champions League.

⚪"Real Madrid" look luxurious in the current season. Carlo Ancelotti has everything under control: his side are first in La Liga, have won the Spanish Super Cup and continue their European campaign in the Champions League. By the way, at the group stage of the Champions League "cream" did not feel the competition, winning six victories out of six possible. "Real Madrid" entered the 1/8 finals from the first line of Quartet C.

Tentative line-ups for the match Leipzig - Real Madrid:

Leipzig (4-4-2): Gulaci - Raum, Orban, Klostermann, Henriks - Simons, Schlager, Kampl, Olmo - Sheshko, Openda

Not playing: Haidara (injury)

Real Madrid (4-3-3): Lunin - Mendy, Carvajal, Tchouameni, Vazquez - Kroos, Kamawinga, Valverde - Vinicius Junior, Diaz, Rodrigo

Not playing: Alaba, Bellingham (questionable), Courtois, Militao, Rüdiger, Fernandez (all (injury)

⚔Personal matches:

In the 2022/23 season, the teams met in the group stage of the Champions League: Real Madrid won 2-0, but Leipzig were 3-2 stronger at the Red Bull Arena.

📊Interesting statistical trends before the match:

    • Real Madrid have scored at least two goals in five of their six Champions League group stage matches. You can bet on Real Madrid's individual total greater than (1.5) for 1.93
    • In the 2023/24 season, Leipzig have scored two or more goals in 11 of 14 (78.5 per cent) home games. There are reasons to bet on Bulls' individual total greater than (1.5) for 2.35
    • Real Madrid have had five or more corners in all six of their group stage games. It is worth taking a closer look at a bet on the visitors' individual total greater than (4.5) corners for 1.60

    📈Statistics: 

    • Leipzig are averaging 10.63 rule infringements per game in the 2023/24 season, while Real Madrid are averaging 9.65.
    • Leipzig have an average xG (expected goals) of 1.82 and Real Madrid 2.05.
    • Real Madrid are caught offside an average of 2.33 times per game, while Leipzig are 2.12.
    • Leipzig are averaging 7.53 interceptions per match in the 2023/24 season, while Real Madrid are averaging 8.03.
    • Leipzig's average possession percentage this season is 54.63%, while Real Madrid's is 58.88%.

    📋Main Outcome Prediction for Leipzig vs Real Madrid:

    Leipzig have hit turbulence after the break: three defeats, a draw and a win. Moreover, in 2024, the Bulls have only beaten the crisis-hit Union, who are uncompetitive in the 2023/24 season. What's worse, in this stretch Marco Rosé's team managed to concede 11 (!) goals. After the previous draw with Augsburg, many of the players expressed their dissatisfaction with the result, and one of them was David Raum:

    "We can't be satisfied today. We need to win games like today but we will analyse it. Now we have to face Real Madrid at home on Tuesday. We will adapt to that," said the Leipzig left-back.

    Well, adapting is certainly possible. However, Real Madrid are the kind of side who can punish the smallest mistakes, and Leipzig don't look like a team capable of playing reliably right now. And if the "creamy" came to Germany in the optimal composition, we would safely load on them. Except that Real Madrid now have a somewhat experimental defensive line, plus, in all likelihood, Bellingham won't play, and too much is built on him. Only because of the personnel losses in the Royal Club's squad will we believe that Leipzig will be able to hang on. Our pick: the home team will not lose at 1.75. And you can also risk - a draw for 3.80.

    ⚽️Прогноз on total goals

    Do we expect goals? No doubt about it. "Leipzig have a 2.17 goals per game, 2.43 goals per game at home, taking into account all tournaments of the season. Real Madrid's attacking numbers are also strong - 2.35 goals per season average and 2.05 when playing away. Plus, remember that the Bulls have conceded 11 goals in five games since the winter break, while Real Madrid have resource issues in defence due to injuries. Catch "both score yes" for 1.58

    📐Corner kicks prediction

    Based on the 2023/24 all-tournament season, Leipzig are averaging 5.8 corners, while Real Madrid are averaging 6.35. These are two attacking teams who are not used to sitting back in defence and are undoubtedly ready to surprise each other in attack. Therefore, we expect some sharp football with a fire in the penalty area and, as a consequence, a lot of standards. Logic and numbers speak in favour of total more (9.5) corners

    🟨Yellow cards prediction

    What about the cards? "Leipzig receive an average of 1.83 yellow cards in the 2023/24 season, and Real Madrid even less at 1.76. The teams are correct, and therefore, even taking into account the status of the match, we do not expect a scattering of warnings. By the way, a season earlier the two sides met in the group stage of the Champions League and for two games only earned a total of five yellows. It wouldn't be wrong to check the total less than (4.5) yellow cards

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