Europe Champions League
Paris Saint-Germain
2 : 0
Ended 14 Feb 2024, 20:00
Real Sociedad
58' Mbappe K.
70' Bradley Barcola

Prediction for Paris Saint-Germain - Real Sociedad 14 February 2024

Real Sociedad, with Arsen Zakharyan in the squad, approach the start of the Champions League play-offs as a dark horse. The Blues will play against PSG in the 1/8 finals. The first match will be held in Paris, and Mbappe and company are considered huge favourites on the rights of the home team. Will the Parisians be able to build a comfortable lead before the return leg? After all, in San Sebastián, the situation will be completely different.

In the previous Ligue 1 match against Lille, Kylian Mbappe was left in the reserves for the first time in six years and did not take to the pitch. But Luis Enrique has reassured fans and expressed confidence that Mbappe will play in the first leg of the 1/8 final:

"We didn't want to take any risks. He could have played if this match was a final. I think it was wise on his part and mine to be cautious. On Wednesday he will be 100 per cent ready, no doubt," said the Parisians' head coach.

The meeting at the Parc de Princes kicks off on 14 February at 23:00 Moscow time.

Odds

PSG are presented as big favourites in this clash:

PSG win1.69

Tie3.95

Real Sociedad5.40

🔵PSG are traditionally strong in Ligue 1, where they are in first place with a gap of 11 points. To the start of the Champions League play-offs Parisians are approaching with a series of 16 matches without defeat. Before the start of the current season, PSG lost a number of top players, but as practice shows, the renewal of the squad has benefited the team. Luis Enrique has chosen the right course.

⚪"Real Sociedad" have won only once in the last five La Liga rounds and, as a consequence, have fallen out of the European Cup zone. "The Whitecaps are in seventh place, but that's a solid intermediate result anyway. Alguacil will build a strong team that performs confidently even in the European arena: in the group stage of the Champions League, Real Madrid took first place in Quartet D, leaving behind Inter, Benfica and Salzburg.

Tentative line-ups for PSG vs Real Sociedad:

PSG (4-4-2): Navas - Hakimi, Beraldo, Pereira, Mukiele - Asensio, Ruiz, Ugarte, Dembele - Mbappe, Colo-Mouani

Not playing: Kurzawa, Mendes, Rico, Shkrinjar (all - injury)

Real Sociedad (4-4-2): Remiro - Galan, Pacheco, Subeldia, Aramburu - Turrientes, Merino, Subimendi, Zaharian - Andre Silva, Kubo

Not playing: Becker, Markelans, Munoz, Odriosola, Fernandez (all -injury)

⚔League encounters:

The teams have not previously crossed paths on the European Cup stage.

📊Interesting statistical trends before the match:

  • PSG have scored two or more goals in 14 of their 16 (87.5%) home games in the 2023/24 season. You can bet on Paris' individual total greater than (1.5) for 1.78.
  • Real Sociedad have had at least four corners in 16 of their 21 away games this season (76.1%). There are reasons to bet on the visitors' individual total greater than (3.5) corners for 1.65.
  • Real Sociedad have scored no more than two goals in five of their six group stage matches. You can bet on Total Under (2.5) for 1.94. 

📈Statistics (all season tournaments): 

    • PSG have an average xG (expected goals) of 2.3, while Real Sociedad have 1.35.
    • PSG averages 7.67 interceptions per game, while Real Madrid averages 6.61.
    • The Parisians average 17.04 tackles per game, while the team from San Sebastian averages 17.63.
    • PSG's average penalty shootout total this season is 0.35, while Real Sociedad's is 0.17.
    • PSG average 16.1 shots on goal per game, while Real Madrid average 12.72.

    📋Prediction for the main outcomes of PSG vs Real Sociedad:

    Real Sociedad are a systematic team who always have a clear game plan. Under Alguacil, the Blue and Whites have an ironclad defence and put in a lot of work (conceding 0.69 goals per game in the 2023/24 season), but they also straighten up like a spring at the right moment and hurt up front. At the group stage, Real Madrid proved that they are ready to fight in the European Cup arena: they did not lose any of their six group stage matches and confidently entered the play-offs from the first line of the D quartet. And the opponents were Inter, Benfica and Salzburg - a solid level of opposition.

    We have no doubt that the team from San Sebastian will continue to bend their line, and in the play-offs opponents with it will be as difficult as possible. In any case, the Parisians will definitely have problems. PSG are good in Ligue 1, but when has that ever helped the French to perform well in the Champions League? In France, you can count on your fingers more or less strong opponents. In the European Cup arena, however, difficulties arose already in the group stage: two wins, two draws and two defeats. Luis Enrique's side were burned by Newcastle (1:4) and Milan (1:2). 

    In our opinion, the visitors have every chance not to lose and move the main showdown to San Sebastian, but let's choose a slightly more reliable option: the guests' win with a handicap (1) for 1.75

    ⚽️Прогноз on total goals

    What about goals? We are not expecting high efficiency and a hail of goals for one simple reason: Real Madrid are as closed as possible, and this is the first match of the Champions League 1/8 finals, where even a draw would be strategically satisfactory for them. We will see a barn lock on the visitors' goal. Let's not be glib: Alguacil's boys have conceded an average of just 0.69 goals in the 2023/24 season, and 24 of their 36 matches have contained no more than two goals. At the group stage, Real Madrid finished on "TM" in five of their six matches. Yes, PSG, granted, are far more entertaining in terms of results, but the Spaniards simply won't let the Parisians run wild. We bet on the under (2.5) total for 1.94

    📐Prediction for corner kicks

    Look at the teams' performance in the Champions League group stage: PSG served an average of 7.33 corners, while Real Sociedad served 6.83. Powerful? The average total in both cases is also on par - 11.33 and 9.67 respectively. Given such indicators, we'll risk checking the "top" corners: total more (9.5) for 1.95

    🟨Yellow Card Prediction

    PSG are averaging just 1.58 yellow cards on the season. Yes, that's not a lot. However, if we look at the Champions League group stage games, we see a completely different figure - exactly three yellows, on average. Real Sociedad have almost identical figures for both the season as a whole and in the Champions League group stage - 2.36 and 2.33 yellows on average. There is reason to believe that we will see at least five yellow cards in the face-to-face encounter: take the total of more than (4.5) yellow cards for 1.80

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Popular Predictions

Choice of the majority
Handicap 1 (-1.5) 2.97
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Match Result: Win 1 1.75
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Corners Total 1 Over (6.5) 2.41
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Total Under (2.5) 1.70
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Total Over (2.5) 2.28
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Corners Total 2 Over (4.5) 2.28
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