Europe Champions League
Lazio Rome
1 : 0
Ended 14 Feb 2024, 20:00
Bayern Munich
69' Immobile C.

Prediction for Lazio Rome - Bayern Munich 14 February 2024

Thomas Tuchel's Bayern Munich will take on Maurizio Sarri's Lazio in the Champions League 1/8 final. The two-match confrontation will start in Rome on 14 February at 23:00 Moscow time. Munich have global problems with their personnel due to a large number of injuries, but the bookmaker still leads them as favourites. Is it true?

By the way, despite the fact that Bayern will not have a number of important players in the match, the reigning Bundesliga champions are still feared in Rome. Maurizio Sarri shared his expectations for the match:

"We are playing a Champions League match against a team of absolute top level, one of the strongest in the world. It is an extremely difficult game, bordering on the impossible.", the Italian said.

Odds

Bayern approach the match as favourites:

Lazio win 5.20

Tie4.20

Bayern win1.67

🔵"Lazio" is eighth in Serie A. Maurizio Sarri's team are having a less than stable season, but are literally one step away from the European Cup zone. The Eagles qualified for the Champions League play-offs from second place in Group E: they finished above Feyenoord and Celtic, but missed Diego Simeone's Atletico.

🔴 Bayern   last round of the Bundesliga with a resounding loss to Bayer Leverkusen, conceding three unanswered goals. Now Munich's gap from first place has grown to five points, and the clouds are growing thicker over Thomas Tuchel's side. However, in the European Cup arena, Munich are still doing well: in the 1/8 finals of the Champions League, they came from the first line of the quartet A (six wins and a draw).

Tentative line-ups for the match Lazio - Bayern:

Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Hisay, Romagnoli, Guila, Marusic - Luis Alberto, Cataldi, Gendusi - Felipe Anderson, Immobile, Isaksen

Not playing: Caccagni, Patrick (both - injured)

Bayern (3-4-2-1): Neuer - Kim, Dyer, De Ligt - Bouille, Goretzka, Pavlovic, Mazraoui - Musiala, Sane, Kane

Not playing: Aceko, Buchmann, Marusic, Upamecano, Gnabry, Davies, Coman, Leimer, Peretz, Sarr (all -injury)

⚔League encounters:

In the 2020/21 season, the teams also crossed paths at the Champions League 1/8 finals stage. Both matches went to Bayern: 4:1 in Rome and 2:1 in Munich.

📊Interesting statistical trends before the match:

  • In 25 out of 30 (83.3%) matches in the 2023/24 season, Bayern served at least six corners. You can bet on Munich's individual total of more than (5.5) corners for 1.86.
  • Lazio have scored in 12 of 16 (75 per cent) home matches this season. A bet on Eagles goal for 1.60.
  • Lazio have had at least four corners in 12 of 16 (75%) home matches in the 2023/24 season. There are reasons to bet on the home side's individual total of more than (3.5) corners for 1.73.

📈Statistics (all season tournaments): 

  • Lazio have an average of 3.47 shots on goal, while Bayern have 7.0.
  • Lazio have an average xG (expected goals) of 1.16, while Bayern have 2.53.
  • Lazio possess the ball on average 50.44% of game time, while Bayern have 61.89%.
  • Lazio make an average of 8.24 interceptions per game, while Bayern make 8.0.
  • Maurizio Sarri makes an average of 4.78 substitutions per game, while Thomas Tuchel makes 4.03.

📋Prediction for the main outcomes of Lazio vs Bayern:

As the game against Bayer Leverkusen showed, Munich have really big problems. Not only the defence, but also the attack is not working - not least because of the huge number of injuries. It is clear that it would be wrong to draw conclusions from one game, and even with the Bundesliga leader. But did Munich only look faded against the powerful gang of Xabi Alonso? No. There were problems before: a 0-1 defeat to Werder, a 1-5 defeat to Eintracht, close games against Wolfsburg (2-1), Augsburg (3-2) and crisis-hit Union (1-0). Under Tuchel, Bayern have lost their former brightness and lightness.

Bavaria can play with such a Bayern, and Lazio in Rome will definitely give a fight. Maurizio Sarri's side are good at the Olimpico in the 2023/24 season, with ten wins, four draws and only two defeats. Crucially, only in one 16 home matches have Lazio lost by more than one goal difference. It is the plus handicap on the underdog that we propose to play. In their current state Munich are unable to win by a big margin, and whether they will win at all is a big question. Let's take the victory of the Romans with a +1.5 for 1.50.

⚽️Прогноз on total goals

Bookmaker gives 1.60 but a Lazio goal. Why not gamble on that? "The Eagles are scoring an average of 1.13 goals at home and have differentiated themselves in 12 of their 16 matches. "Bayern" in the meantime lost several important players of the defensive line and will play with an experimental defence, which has been failing regularly lately. Tuchel's team have conceded in four of their previous five matches, with only one top-flight opponent in that stretch - Bayer Leverkusen. It wouldn't be wrong to check out Lazio's individual total greater than (0.5) for 1.60 

📐Corner kicks prediction

Take all home/away matches of the teams in the 2023/24 season: Lazio serve an average of 5.38 corners, while Bayern serve 7.0. The average overall total in the case of the home team is 8.75 corners, while the visitors have 9.47. Considering the averages, we consider a good bet on total more (8.5) corners for 1.58

🟨Yellow Card Prediction

Lazio are averaging 2.69 yellow cards per game in the 2022/24 season. The Eagles have been sanctioned by the referee at least twice in 26 of their 32 matches, and on 18 occasions not in this stretch have been sanctioned at least three times. That is, in 56.2 per cent of matches, Romans have received at least three cautions. The home side have discipline problems, and they will surely show them against a top opponent. Let's take Lazio's individual total over (2.5) yellow cards

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Popular Predictions

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Match Result: Win 2 1.74
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Handicap 2 (-1.5) 2.82
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Double Chance: 1X 2.19
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Corners Total 1 Over (4.5) 2.74
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BTTS (Yes) 1.78
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